Quarantine will end sooner or later. However, we still do not know when and how this will happen. Last weekend, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez announced that the state of emergency in the country will be extended for another two weeks, until April 26. However, this will not end there. Gradually some easing of the regime will be introduced.
According to information at the moment, April 12 will end the most severe period of emergency. On Monday, April 13, minor industries such as construction and factories will resume their work. They have been suspended since March 30.
Caution, medical prescriptions, respect for rights and freedoms, and preparedness for any scenario. It is these principles that govern the government to plan the “next phase” of quarantine. Little is known about their strategy and plans. However, epidemiologists can already roughly say what this path will be like. They know that a return to “normal” life will occur using the “trial and error” method.
Opinion of a public health professor at the University of Pompeu Fabra, Fernando Benavides on this subject. “To return to a“ normal ”life, the degree of immunity of the population is important. And, therefore, the availability of studies and analyzes that determine it. It is important for doctors to know what percentage of the population has immunity. These are the tens of thousands of people who have had the disease and who have antibodies even without symptoms. But so far no one knows whether 30, 40 or 50% of the population were infected. It depends on whether herd immunity exists in this situation – one that protects almost the entire population – it is necessary that 70% of the population be immunized (after transmission of the virus). “
“I like the idea of the government to conduct mass testing and isolate people without symptoms, which are many. Until this is done, we will have to avoid group activities other than those that are necessary. We will not be able to go to a restaurant or university, to a disco or to a party. Even if we don’t like the word, all activities will have to be prohibited, ”says Benavides.
But before returning to everyday life, the health sector must be “rebuilt,” says epidemiologist Ildefonso Hernandez, spokesman for the Spanish SESPAS. “Protect staff, control patient flows, and ensure professional replacement. This step precedes a return to a certain norm, ”says Hernandez. “Along with this, some restrictive measures will also have to be relaxed.” In his opinion, the first thing we can do is go for a walk with the children, perhaps even before the beginning of May. ”
Children first
It is hard to imagine that the children will not go out until May, given how much time they are already in their homes. Experts believe that in a few days, children will be able to walk with their parents for a certain amount of time, just as adults can do it alone “even if they don’t have children or dogs.”
Both epidemiologists agree that this may be one of the first measures to weaken the measures taken in Spain, as it is already permitted in Italy or even in France and the UK. “If everything is done correctly, this should not be dangerous for society. Doing sports alone is no more dangerous than going to the supermarket. If the number of infections suddenly increases, this is because we are doing it wrong. It is on our responsibility when we are allowed to go out. ”
We can say goodbye to classes at schools and universities
It’s better not to talk about returning to classes. It does not seem that this measure will be appropriate, given that the state of emergency will continue, at least until the end of April. The Minister of Universities has already canceled full-time classes. “The paradox is that children, not being a risk group, are carriers and can put people around them at risk,” Hernandez explains.
When an epidemiologist thinks about returning children to classes after the summer – “if we return” – he sees the following picture in his head. Pupils and teachers in masks and queue after class to wash their hands. Most likely, this image, which we saw earlier in Japan or Korea, will become common in Europe.
So, do you need to wear masks?
Experts cannot come to a single decision either in Spain or in other countries. In Asia, people were practically forced to wear masks almost from the start of the epidemic. However, WHO has long warned that this is probably not the best option. Because the mask gives people a false sense of security. And also, this can cause a shortage of remedies among physicians, when they must protect themselves in the first place.
This Monday, the Minister of Health, Salvador Illa, confirmed that the widespread use of medical masks in Spain would not be recommended if there were not enough supplies. Therefore, the problem is the availability of the product itself. “We cannot take these measures if we cannot guarantee the supply of the population. The priority is to provide protection, first of all, to the healthcare sector for a long period of time. I’m not talking about the next two weeks, but at least until September”, Hernandez explains.
“In any case, the presence of masks is not a key factor in easing restrictive measures,” he says. “I do not consider it necessary for the child to go out into the mask, on the basis that he has been at home for a long time, and it is logical that he is not infected, although everything will depend on material and technical capabilities.”
Fernando Benavides, on the contrary, is convinced that masks will enter our daily lives as soon as everything calms down. “We are in a completely new situation, and we must be careful. We cannot afford new mistakes”, he says.
End of self-isolation: by district and population
The higher the population density, the greater the infection. Consequently, the least populated areas have every chance of ending quarantine much earlier. The population of Spain is quite different depending on the area. The first steps to take tough measures should be taken in places where the situation is well controlled, even in the case of an “error”. Jaen Province in China and Madrid are not the same thing.
And, first of all, it is necessary to warn older people who have suffered the most. Most likely, people at risk should stay on self-isolation longer. All this will be done based on the recommendations of doctors and the government.
Should I expect a new wave of infection after quarantine ends?
“This is what we want to avoid,” says Ildefonso Hernandez. “This is normal for some infections, but there shouldn’t be a strong surge again,” he says. “We must gradually lift restrictions to see how the whole mechanism works. It is necessary to closely monitor new cases (identify them, monitor, track contacts, isolate infected people) in order to avoid the return of a situation of uncontrolled transmission of the virus. If these measures are implemented correctly, then other restrictions can be removed, ”he says.
And if the resumption of growth of the diseased is not controlled, will quarantine return? Yes, it can happen. “For example, they will start opening football stadiums, and then they will realize that this was a mistake. In this case, it will be necessary to go back to self-isolation, ”Benavides explains.
Are “recommendations” enough?
If people observe them, there should be no danger, epidemiologists emphasize. The problem is that sometimes, when the government does not force or prohibit, but only recommends certain measures, the population does not always follow the instructions in a quality manner. In this regard, the mentality of people has changed a lot in these three weeks.
Previously, when authorities announced that the event was canceled, people were outraged. Now they are those who do not want to endanger themselves or others. Three weeks ago no one knew what we were facing. No one expected such a high mortality rate or such a high degree of infectiousness, even scientists.
What is happening with the healthcare system now?
According to recent data, in Spain at least 20,000 health workers infected with coronavirus. This is a lot. However, this may benefit in the future. After all, medical workers will already be immunized against him. In fact, the health system will be reorganized based on this.
The idea is for health workers to develop immunity. And on this basis, organize working groups. Those who deal with people who are at risk will preferably be workers who have already transmitted the virus. he notes. It is likely that a lot more people have transmitted the virus than we know. The more hospitals in which up to 70% of workers are infected, the better for the rapid recovery of the healthcare system.
Within the framework of the healthcare organization, it will be necessary to create “Covid and not Covid zones”, if possible avoid personal visits to doctors, give priority to online appointments, separate people depending on whether they have found symptoms of coronavirus or not, etc. The goal is to ensure that people with suspected acute respiratory illness do not share hospital rooms with patients who go to the doctor to solve other problems, mainly in the emergency room.
Which countries is Spain targeting?
Spain is watching everyone. The government is processing all proposals and options. There is no “model” country, but there are “model” measures that need to be adapted to our territory, our culture and our personality.
It was on this Tuesday that the quarantine in Wuhan, the first hotbed of the pandemic, was lifted two months after the city was completely closed and the population completely isolated. People bought products over the Internet and were not able to leave their areas.
There are measures that apply in Taiwan and Hong Kong that could not be applied here. Because legal legislation and people’s access to technology are different.
In the summer you can forget about travel
Obviously, this is selfish in relation to others, and will depend on the type of trip. “There will always be a few fearless ones who want to take advantage of the situation, but our caution will tell us not to board trains or planes,” says Benavides. According to the epidemiologist, this summer cruises will not be made. Instead, “we will explore domestic tourism” by car, he suggests.
However, summer can bring good news. “If it is true that heat and ultraviolet rays help reduce attenuation of the virus, it will be very good. Perhaps at 35 or 40 degrees it will be harder for the virus to survive on the surface and transmission in society will decrease significantly, ”says Hernandez. Thus, “in May, depending on the weather, we will be able to have an approximate idea of the further development of the situation.”