Economists view on the pandemic.
Part 1
We have analyzed the speeches and reports of the world’s leading economists and scientists, and have compiled the most important ones for you.
A virus is an excellent mathematical model, that is, it can be calculated and predicted. But the problem is that we are always “late” for at least three weeks. People who died today were infected three weeks ago.
The situation we are observing now is the result of activities and decisions made three weeks ago. This is important: the result of our actions today we will only see in three weeks! Simple calculation, math: this is how COVID-19 behaves. Looking at the quarantine now, we are in the experiment stage, and its result will be visible only after 3-5 weeks.
The main mistake is that everyone makes decisions based on what they have today or had yesterday, but they must make decisions based on what happened three weeks ago.
Only now, having gained the experience of different countries, economists can tell what measures have taken the results. It was simply impossible to predict this before: there was no data.
Those who do not understand this say that quarantine does not work and that the situation worsens every day. But again, we see today what happened three weeks ago. Moreover, we will see the result of our quarantine today not before three weeks from now.
The Chinese experience helped a lot in this situation, but not many people listened to it. Frankly, China “gave” Europe these three weeks, and the rest of the world a month and a half. Asian countries close to China have used this gift correctly. Probably because they already had experience in treating local epidemics.
The countries of Europe and America used this donated time incorrectly, with a significant delay. Of course, such strict regulation is impossible in these countries, but the only thing that could be done was to react a little earlier. If everyone had worn masks in January, followed disinfection measures, tested everything with the slightest suspicion of a virus, then economists are confident that it would have been possible to avoid strict quarantine if companies and institutions had not closed.
As for the countries that have not yet entered strict quarantine, they will see their result in a month, but it will be too late.
A little bit of math. Duplication of infection cases occurs on average in 7 days. Therefore, each country could calculate the approximate number of cases of infection, starting with the identification of the first. Considering approximately that of 100 detected cases of infection in 1 million people, we will arrive in approximately 3 months, and the country’s population on average is much more than 1 million. Therefore, for the virus to disappear, everyone must develop immunity. With these calculations, it is 5-6 months.
1-3% of the population will die, that is, we will meet these peoples, and each person will have a friend who is sick or even dead.
However, no one knows for sure, perhaps we are wrong in the pace of development, economists are corrected for various conditions and, as in any mathematical model, allow for possible uncertainty.
One thing is clear: this is a long-term problem, it can only be solved in stages. Moreover, the first is hard quarantine to reduce the spread rate. The duration of the stage is 1-2 months. Furthermore, with the identification of positive dynamics and a decrease in cases, the measures will gradually weaken.
It is important not to make mistakes with relaxation, otherwise the second wave cannot be avoided. That is why they often talk about each person’s awareness and attention.
In any case, the virus will pass through the entire population. For many people this will be asymptomatic, most have their own high immune barrier. In addition, for some, serious medical intervention, equipment, and ventilation are needed. Due to the lack of preparation of the medical system in those countries for such a heavy burden, they are forced to impose a strict quarantine.
The quarantine task is complicated because people make individually optimal decisions for themselves, that is, they do what is beneficial to them. But this does not correspond to what is necessary for society as a whole.
If your chance of getting sick, or even getting sick, but then recovering is high, you have high immunity, and you are not at risk, then the virus itself may not be dangerous to you. You can continue living a full life. But of course, you present a great danger to other people who have lower immunity and worsen the general situation. This is the case when isolated acts of quarantine compliance are ineffective; only compliance with the rules prescribed by the absolute majority of the population will work here. The main task of 80% of the population is simply to comply with quarantine.